2008 Presidential Election Coverage
Podcast
Listen to the acclaimed presidential historian Robert Dallek comment on the 2008 election. This month Dr. Dallek addresses the wide open field of candidates, early upsets, and the campaign for change.
2008 Election Blog
Commentary by Robert Dallek, Ph.D.
February 2008
A Wide Open Field
For the first time in 55 years, there is no incumbent president or vice president running for the White House. Not since Illinois governor Adlai Stevenson (Democrat) and General Dwight D. Eisenhower (Republican) ran against each other in 1952 has a contest for the highest office been so wide open.
As a consequence, the Democrats fielded eight candidates for the nomination and the Republicans seven. For the Democrats, the front-runners have been former first lady and current New York senator Hillary Clinton, Illinois freshman senator Barak Obama, and former North Carolina senator and 2004 vice presidential nominee, John Edwards. Ohio congressman Dennis Kucinich, and former Alaska governor Mike Gravel are still in the running. Three candidates have dropped out of the race – Senator Joe Biden of Delaware, Senator Chris Dodd of Connecticut, and New Mexico governor Bill Richardson.
The Republican slate includes former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, Arizona senator John McCain, former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson, California congressman Duncan Hunter, and Texas congressman Ron Paul.
Early Upsets
People wonder why some of the long shots in the race bother to run. The answer is that surprising outcomes have occurred in past nomination contests. Few commentators gave Jimmy Carter or Bill Clinton a chance to win the Democratic nominations in 1976 and 1992, respectively. Front-runners don’t always end up as a party’s candidate.
Although it’s much too early to confidently predict the outcome of the party contests, there is already some reason to think that long shots may well upset the front-runners in 2008.
In the Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton, who many were anointing as the party’s candidate, is now in jeopardy of losing the nomination to Obama. Backed by ex-president husband Bill and the party establishment, Clinton’s third place finish in Iowa, behind Obama and Edwards, was a surprise to many. Her narrow victory in New Hampshire over Obama – 39% to 37% – has renewed hopes of her nomination, but the contest seems certain now to go through at least February 5, when 22 states will hold their primaries. AP Delgate Tracker
An even bigger surprise was Huckabee’s decisive victory over Mitt Romney in Iowa, who had outspent Huckabee in the state by seven to one. Huckabee finished third in New Hampshire, however, with only 11% of the vote. This poor showing in New Hampshire suggests that he may only have a narrow band of support among evangelical Christians, which will make it difficult for him to win the Republican nomination. McCain’s victory over Romney in New Hampshire further damages Romney’s campaign and makes the upcoming January primary elections in Michigan and South Carolina all the more important.
Campaign of Change
Why the results we’ve seen so far? The answer seems to be that voters are eager for a decisive turn in a new direction. The catchword in the first campaigns has been “change.” After seven years of a Bush presidency that now receives only 30% approval ratings, the country is eager for a fresh start. Five years of an Iraq war that most Americans believe was a mistake to fight, a Congress that is largely deadlocked, and now an economy that seems to be sinking into recession have created the conditions that are dictating the current national mood. The Republicans are demoralized, the Democrats are energized, and independents, an increasingly large part of the national electorate, are ready to tip the balance toward someone who gives them renewed hope.
From the start of his campaign, Obama has promised to bring the country together and address national problems in fresh ways. Huckabee has positioned himself as the outsider – or the anti-Washington candidate – ready to make a clean sweep of the capitol and bring a higher moral tone to governing from the White House. McCain is the independent, who, despite his Republican Party affiliation, identifies himself as a straight talker more committed to the national well-being than to any party position.
The campaign still has a long way to go and the realistic contenders now are Clinton and Obama on the Democratic side and Huckabee, McCain, and Romney in the Republican fight.
We will see what the elections this month will bring. But it is conceivable that for the first time in many years the primaries won’t determine the nominees in advance of the summer conventions, and we will have fierce political battling for delegates when the parties meet to select their candidates.
Critical Thinking Questions
- Evaluate What do you think is the biggest factor that causes a candidate to drop out of a presidential race?
- Make Inferences Why are Clinton and Obama the leading candidates for the Democrats? Why are Huckabee, McCain, and Romney leading the Republican race?
- Problems and Solutions What is the biggest issue facing any of the presidential candidates?
Dr. Robert Dallek is a Senior Consultant for Holt McDougal American History ©2008 and The Americans ©2009. He is an acclaimed historian of the American presidency and an authority on leadership and crises.