April: McCain versus Clinton or Obama?

2008 Presidential Election Coverage

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Listen to the acclaimed presidential historian Robert Dallek comment on the 2008 election. This month Dr. Dallek explores the experience versus change theme of the race and Obama’s recent speech on race.

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2008 Election Blog

Commentary by Robert Dallek, Ph.D.
April 2008

Resolutions and Uncertainties

The battle for the presidential nominations is now settled on the Republican side and becoming more heated among the Democrats.

John McCain completed his amazing comeback on March 4 with a four state sweep that gave him enough delegates to capture the nomination and force former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, his last rival, out of the race.

By contrast, the Democratic Party contest remains unsettled. Senator Barak Obama had brought Senator Hillary Clinton to the brink of elimination with eleven straight state victories. But the contests in Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, and Vermont have once again changed the dynamic of the race.

Senator Clinton’s popular majorities in three of the states – Ohio, Rhode Island, and Texas – have convinced her supporters that she remains a viable candidate for the nomination. Obama’s lead in delegates remains too large for her to pass him in pledged delegates through victories in the remaining state contests. But with the unpledged super delegates and questions about whether Florida and Michigan will have voting delegates at the convention still unsettled (they lost their votes because of party rules’ violations), the battle for the nomination remains fiercely contested.

Numerous commentators believe that if the Democrats continue their intra-party fight until the convention meets in late August, they will squander their initial lead over the Republicans.

Historical Battles

Is there any way to test this assertion? History may give us some clues. In 1912, the Democrats needed 44 ballots before nominating Woodrow Wilson, who went on to win the election. In 1932, it took only four ballots for Franklin D. Roosevelt to become the nominee and in 1960, John F. Kennedy won on the first ballot. But in both these latter cases, analysts warned that the nomination battles would undermine the party’s chances of putting FDR or JFK in the White House. They were wrong.

But there is no assurance that this sort of history will repeat itself in 2008. Circumstances now are vastly different – except in one respect that may be crucial to the Democrats’ hopes of recapturing the presidency. In 1932 and again in 1960, like now, the country was thirsting for a change of direction. The Great Depression of the 1930s had turned voters decisively against Herbert Hoover. Similarly, in 1960, the country was in a down mood about Dwight Eisenhower’s eight-year Republican presidency. Voters still liked “Ike,” as Americans affectionately called him, but they were frustrated by a stumbling economy and fears that the United States was falling behind the Soviet Union in rocket technology and more generally in the Cold War competition.

There are remarkable similarities today to 1960. That year, Kennedy ran against Richard Nixon who was a familiar Washington figure, having served in the House, the Senate and the vice presidency. In this election, the Republicans’ John McCain has been in the U.S. Senate for over twenty years and like Nixon is a prominent public figure.

Republican Obstacles

More important, in 2008, the Republican administration of George W. Bush is even more unpopular than the Eisenhower administration of 1960. According to polls, three quarters of Americans see the country as heading in the wrong direction or on the wrong track. The most obvious political appeal so far this year has been for change or a new period of hope and optimism.

A current economic downturn and a highly unpopular war place a burden on McCain, who has identified himself with Bush’s rhetoric about winning in Iraq and has acknowledged his limited grasp of economic problems and offered no convincing program for restoring prosperity. Bush’s endorsement of McCain has immediately brought attacks from Democrats that McCain’s election in November would mean a “third Bush term.” With Bush’s approval rating at 30 percent, his endorsement may well prove to be more of a deficit than an asset.

What’s Next?

None of this is to suggest that the Democrats have a lock on the election in November – regardless of who they nominate. There is a well-proven saying that in politics a week can be like a year. With the election still eight months in the future, the uncertainties about the outcome are much greater than anything we can learn from the history of past elections. Still, the past offers us some guidelines that McCain, Clinton and Obama will not want to ignore.

Critical Thinking Questions

1. Make Inferences
   Why do numerous commentators believe that the Democrats’ chances of regaining the Presidency will be hurt by not having a clear candidate before their convention?
2. Form and Support Opinions
   How much attention should presidential candidates pay to past elections?
3. Compare and Contrast
   Compare and contrast the current advantages and disadvantages of the Democratic and Republican parties in the Presidential election.

Dr. Robert Dallek is a Senior Consultant for Holt McDougal American History ©2008 and The Americans ©2009. He is an acclaimed historian of the American presidency and an authority on leadership and crises.