January: The Longest Campaign

2008 Presidential Election Coverage

Podcast

Listen to the acclaimed presidential historian Robert Dallek comment on the 2008 election. This month he explains how the 2008 election is the longest campaign in U.S. history. He also gives students tips on how to follow the early primaries and caucuses.

Download

2008 Election Blog

Commentary by Robert Dallek, Ph.D.
January 2008

The Longest Campaign

The 2008 presidential and congressional elections are now less than a year away.

It seems like the candidates have been at the center of America’s daily news accounts for a long time. In fact, 2008 will be remembered as the longest presidential campaign in the country’s history.

Why did this election cycle begin so early and why will it have lasted so long?

Historical Perspective

The answer, I believe, revolves around feelings about the current presidential administration. President Bush’s approval ratings have rivaled those of other recent presidents who were very unpopular in the last months of their terms. Like Harry S. Truman and Richard Nixon, Bush’s negatives far outrun his positive ratings in public opinion polls.

In the last year-and-a-half of his presidency, Harry Truman saw his approval ratings steadily decline. The Korean War, which began in June 1950 and had settled into a stalemate by 1951, was an unpopular war, which a majority of Americans believed had been a mistake to fight.

Richard Nixon also lost his hold on a majority of Americans because of the Watergate scandal. When he faced the possibility of being removed from office for high crimes and misdemeanors, he chose to resign in August 1974. He is the only president who ever quit before his term ended.

Early Interest in the 2008 Campaign

The Bush administration has also become highly unpopular over the Iraq War, which seems similar to the American experience in Vietnam, where we fought an unsuccessful ten-year war. No president in American history, or at least since the advent of polling in the 1930s, has had such strong negative feelings expressed about him in opinion surveys as those recorded about Bush.

It is the strong negative sentiments that seem to have aroused such early interest in the next presidential election. People want a fresh start on addressing the country’s problems with Iraq and Iran, worldwide terrorism, environmental pollution, health care costs and insurance, illegal immigrants, mortgage defaults, declining home values, and other economic uncertainties.

Looking Ahead

The national mood is reflected in the answers people give when asked to identify the greatest presidents in the country’s history. Invariably, most name George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, and Franklin D. Roosevelt. But then many people add John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan to the list.

It is a bit astonishing: JFK served for only a thousand days and has no clear claim on presidential greatness in terms of his achievements, except perhaps for his successful resolution of the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962. Reagan’s eight years in the White House have not yet been subjected to scholarly scrutiny and won’t be until the bulk of his presidential records open in the next ten to 15 years.

The inclusion of Kennedy and Reagan as great presidents tells us something about what voters would like to see in the next election. According to a recent survey, some three-quarters of the country think that the Bush administration has put the country on the wrong track and want a new direction in both our domestic and foreign affairs.

Specifically, a majority is eager for a president who gives them a renewed sense of optimism or hope about the country’s future. They remember Kennedy as someone who promised a New Frontier and declared in his Inaugural Address, “Ask not what your country can do for you. Ask what you can do for your country.” People want a president who has a grand vision and asks Americans to make commitments on its behalf. Similarly, Reagan said it was “Morning in America” and “The Pride is Back.” “Made in the U.S.A.” became a popular slogan of the eighties. In short, people want inspirational leadership that promises a better future.

Do any of the candidates—Democratic or Republican—satisfy this desire?

I’ll address this in my next essay.

Critical Thinking Questions

1. Synthesize Why will this presidential campaign have lasted so long?
2. Analyze What role will the candidates’ image play in the upcoming election?
3. Form and Support Opinions What effect will so many candidates have on the election?

Dr. Robert Dallek is a Senior Consultant for Holt McDougal American History ©2008 and The Americans ©2009. He is an acclaimed historian of the American presidency and an authority on leadership and crises.