March: Super Tuesday Narrows the Field

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2008 Presidential Election Coverage

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Listen to the acclaimed presidential historian Robert Dallek comment on the 2008 election. This month Dr. Dallek discusses the possibility that the Democratic nomination could come down to the convention and what that would mean for the Democrats, and why it has been almost 50 years since a sitting senator won the presidential election.


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2008 Election Blog

Commentary by Robert Dallek, Ph.D.
March 2008

Narrowing the Field

The latest voting in the primaries and caucuses increases the possibility that this will be the longest and most expensive presidential election in the country’s history.

For the first time in 55 years, with no incumbent president or vice president running, both parties initially saw more candidates vying for the nominations – eight on each side – then at any time in recent memory. Early primaries quickly thinned out the candidate lists. Observers turned their attention to February 5, or “Super Tuesday”, when 22 states would hold elections.

Super Tuesday

By the morning of February 5, the Democratic race had become a two-candidate battle between New York Senator Hillary Clinton and Illinois Senator Barak Obama. Should one of them win the presidency, he or she would be not only the first African American or woman to get to the White House but also the first sitting Senator since John Kennedy in 1960 to win the prize, and only the third in 88 years. In the Republican race, Arizona Senator John McCain, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney remained standing.

Like earlier predictions that proved mistaken about who was ahead and who would win certain states, assertions that February 5 would settle the contests proved to be only partly accurate. On the Republican side, McCain seems to have opened up a commanding lead, winning approximately half the delegates a candidate needs for the Republican nomination. This was enough to persuade Romney, who was in second place, to drop out. Huckabee, however, who did well in the South and commands almost 200 delegates and support from the party’s conservative base, seems determined to battle into the convention. Huckabee hopes that coming primaries may give him a boost and sidetrack McCain’s march to the nomination.

Battle for the Democrats

The Democratic fight is much more unsettled. Clinton and Obama each came away from Super Tuesday with important state victories that give them roughly equal numbers of pledged delegates. Unlike the Republican contests, where all a state’s delegates go to the candidate with a majority of the popular vote or the highest count in a caucus, the Democratic elections divide delegates proportionally or to reflect the percentage a candidate wins in the state.

The upcoming contests now become all the more crucial. In the immediate future, Obama seems to have an advantage because polls put him ahead of Clinton in upcoming primaries. But this is not concrete, and Clinton is favored in other state primaries happening later.

No one at this point can possibly predict with any certainty how the Democratic fight will end. Clearly, the nomination will go to Clinton or Obama, but which one will manage to capture more votes and, more importantly, more delegates in the coming weeks is anyone’s guess. Some argue that the more people see and hear Obama, the better he does. Others believe that Clinton’s effectiveness as a debater and campaigner will carry the day for her. Some also believe that she will be better able to mount an effective race against John McCain, the almost certain Republican nominee.

Convention Showdown

It is entirely possible that for the first time since 1968, the Democratic nomination won’t be decided until the party convention convenes in August. Could we be headed for the sort of knock-down, drag-out battle the Democrats saw in 1912 when Woodrow Wilson won the nomination after 44 ballots, or in 1924 when John W. Davis of West Virginia got the nod on the 103rd ballot after New York Governor Al Smith and William Gibbs McAdoo fought to a draw through 102 ballots?

If the Democrats enter their convention with no clear winner, the television networks will revert to gavel-to-gavel coverage for the first time in awhile. At the very least, 2008 is proving to be the most exciting presidential battle since John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon fought for the White House in 1960.

Critical Thinking Questions

  1. Causes and Effects What caused Romney to drop out of the Republican nomination race?
  2. Analyze Why are the Democratic delegates so evenly split between Clinton and Obama?
  3. Form and Support Opinions Who do you believe will win the Democratic nomination and why?

Dr. Robert Dallek is a Senior Consultant for Holt McDougal American History ©2008 and The Americans ©2009. He is an acclaimed historian of the American presidency and an authority on leadership and crises.

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