2008 Presidential Election Coverage
Podcast
Listen to the acclaimed presidential historian Robert Dallek comment on the 2008 election. This month Dr. Dallek examines the historical role of negative campaigns and the large number of voters turning out for the primaries.
2008 Election Blog
Commentary by Robert Dallek, Ph.D.
May 2008
Ongoing Battle
With six months to go before the general election, the results in Pennsylvania on April 22 leave the Democratic outcome uncertain. Senator John McCain has a lock on the Republican nomination, but Senator Hillary Clinton and Senator Barack Obama are still fighting it out.
Obama holds a solid lead in pledged delegates, states won, and popular votes. But with only nine primaries and caucuses left between now and June, it seems likely that neither candidate will win enough pledged delegates to secure the nomination. The super delegates will decide the contest. Super delegates are party members, including office holders, who are free to vote as they think best for the party and the country. At the moment, Clinton has a small edge over Obama in super delegates, but this gap has been closing. Many super delegates feel compelled to give their backing to whoever has the greatest popular support after all the ballots are counted, which seems likely to be Obama.
Democratic Weakness
Many Democrats are now fretting that the fight for the nomination is going to help McCain in the fall campaign. If the battling were advancing the country toward solutions to its largest problems, Democrats would feel better about the contest. They could exalt with Walt Whitman: “I know nothing grander, better exercise, better digestion, more positive proof of the past, the triumphant result of faith in human kind, than a well-contested American national election.”
Most party faithful, however, see the negative attacks by Clinton and Obama in the reach for an edge over the other as only weakening the larger cause. They are impatient to get on to the contest against McCain when they can talk about the Bush administration’s current failings and implicitly McCain’s.
Republican Weakness
No one can predict with certainty what the mood of the country will be in the fall. If existing conditions remain at the center of voters’ attention in November, it is difficult to see how McCain or, more to the point, the Republicans can hold on to the White House or win back control of either the House or the Senate.
If the election were held this week, the losers would be McCain, Republican legislators, and indirectly, George W. Bush, whose presidential record casts a long shadow over his party and its presidential nominee. There is probably no more deadly combination of circumstances for an incumbent party to run on than a stumbling economy and a failing war. The loss of lives in an unpopular war that Americans fear is unwinnable and believe won’t have much impact on the country’s long-term security is an almost impossible obstacle for a party to overcome. But so is a weakening economy that is shedding jobs and reducing families’ standard of living.
When incumbent Democrat Woodrow Wilson ran for a second term in 1916, he boasted that his administration had given the country pace and prosperity. Although he headed a minority party at the time, he won reelection.
So, short of some catastrophe in the coming six months or some decisive turn around in the economy at home or the war in Iraq , the Democrats seem poised to win a big victory in November. Despite their current intra-party struggle, the Democrats will likely reconcile when the prospect of returning to the White House looms in the fall.
Critical Thinking Questions
- Form and Support Opinions Does the continuing Democratic struggle for the nomination hurt the Democrats’ chances of winning back the White House? Why or why not?
- Make Inferences How do popular opinions about the Bush administration affect John McCain’s campaign?
- Problems and Solutions What problems do the Democrats need to overcome to win the election? What problems do the Republicans need to overcome?
Dr. Robert Dallek is a Senior Consultant for Holt McDougal American History ©2008 and The Americans ©2009. He is an acclaimed historian of the American presidency and an authority on leadership and crises.